Sabato’s Crystal Ball Moves UT-4 to Lean R

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Brand-new reports from Larry Sabato moves the 4th Congressional from toss-up to “Leans R”.

From today’s newsletter:

Meanwhile, national Republicans have to feel good about the prospects of Mia Love, who is challenging Rep. Jim Matheson (D) in dark Red Utah. Matheson had a lead in this race, but an independent Deseret News/KSL survey now shows Love up six. This race was always going to be an uphill climb for Matheson, who despite retaining personal popularity, is running in a district that not only will likely give close to three-fourths of its votes to Mitt Romney, but that also is two-thirds new to him after redistricting. Matheson might yet stage a rally, but he’s an underdog now: UT-4 now leans Republican, and if Love wins, it’s likely that the first black, female Republican elected to the U.S. House will become one of the more prominent members of a lower chamber mostly filled with nationally anonymous faces.

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